True, although Baz Lurhmann isn't much of a Hollywood insider. It was a bad year for comedies, and picking Moulin Rouge let the voters feel edgy. Unlike Beautiful Mind, a nice safe choice. LOTR hasn't got much hope at the Oscars, I'm afraid, outside of tech-type awards. Now if I could vote... :)
Then again, it's not like I'm unbiased, considering I'm, well, /here/. I'm sure there are lots of sad Harry Potter fans, Memento fans, and even I Am Sam fans who all think they were robbed, too.