I would put my forces at cirith ungle, and my nazgul at the black gates, then have saramon attack minas tirith and i send 10,000 cave trolls to rohan.

Pleas forgive misspellings and capitalization

i'm probably not the right person to ask, being a hobbit and all, hehehe. But if i would be Sauron, trapped in Mordor and depending on others to a) find my ring and b) fight a war for me, i would not have sent the Nazgûl for the ring but sent them to war because as i see it they were really a force to be reckoned with in battle and thus i would probably make more use of their power.

And i might have ordered Saruman to not go West and concentrate on the Shire but to come and help me in Gondor.

Other than that i really have no idea what i would have done differently. Actually - omg, am i saying this ?!? - Sauron did a marvelous job there. He basically kept everyone in Arda on their toes til the end.

Eh I'd have to disagree. If I were Sauron. I know, for a fact, that if I created the most powerful artifact the world has known, one that could only be destroyed where it was created, which also happened to be the heart of my kingdom, and then that artifact went missing....I wouldn't even consider it before doing. Maybe in times of need I'd send the nazgul into battle, but I would undoubtedly have some sort of guard post outside. Like the DMZ in Korea. Even though there's almost no chance of an actual fight breaking out there, they still have extremely strict guard protocols and "just in case" plans. Sure if I HAD the ring it'd be different. But I don't think Sauron needed to be aware of the Fellowship to be aware there's a chance his ring could be destroyed. Regardless, even though he may not have known of the fellowship specifically, not long after the journey began he knew a hobbit had the ring, he knew he couldn't find said hobbit, and then on top of that he discovered the ring was on the move away from The Shire (incident in Bree for one). And I promise this isn't a "hindsight/well because I know" scenario. I would have set up AT LEAST one door guard. IF ANYTHING, put some insanely thick/heavy/spiked door that can only be opened by 10 cave trolls. What's the saying? It only takes a grain of sand to shatter cracked glass? Something like that.

One of the greatest pieces of advice Sun Tzu gives us is to not underestimate but overestimate your enemy. So considering I might not have considered hobbits, I undoubtedly would have considered dwarves, and I definitely would have considered elves, thus I don't think there's any doubt in my mind I'd have set up a guard of some sort. If you have innumerable amounts of orcs, I think setting one or two aside on guard duty for arguably the most important place in ME at the time just seems...obvious.

But again I do agree that better use of Saruman would've been the key to Sauron's victory. However I think sending Saruman to ravage The Shire off the bat would be another mistake. Suddenly Saruman's forces are occupied on the opposite side of the world in unfamiliar territory not really suited for foot soldiers. Thus, THERE IS A CHANCE, that a powerful enough militia, consisting of hobbits, dwarves, elves, and men, could fight back with guerilla tactics, also using geography such as the Old Forest to their advantage. Scouts would see the army on the move, the dust cloud alone  could be seen for miles, and perhaps the Rohirrim could be called upon and they'd arrive at the last second to save the day. There are so many other places he could've gone with Saruman, but instead Saruman got arrogant and risked the pre-emptive attack on a legendary citadel. Classic military blunder.

I think my main advantage over Sauron is I've read both Machiavelli's and Sun Tzu's Art of War. So admittedly Sauron was a military genius because he came up with all these formations on his own, BUT, technically the thread asks what if we were Sauron, not retell Sauron's story, so.....

Fornad I agree with you completely why he failed. You're preaching to the choir here. He didn't see it coming. And yes, as we both said that was his downfall. And see now we're debating what we agree on: why Sauron fell. I don't think there's any dispute as Tolkien clarified this many times. The question is how could he have prevented it. One obvious way I think is keeping the entrance guarded. Obviously he didn't do it because he didn't think he needed to. So because of his arrogance I feel like he overlooked obvious potential missteps. For one I think he would have realized everything you say far before the fellowship even entered Moria. Simply because his riders knew the Ring was at Bree for sure, after already being pretty sure it was in the Shire with a hobbit. Besides obviously Saruman knew roughly where they were because he sent out his raid party. And if Saruman knew, I'll bet Sauron could've figured it out too, assuming Saruman didn't tell him.

So, if I were Sauron and a great military strategist, I would keep my only weakness guarded at all times. I don't really care if I thought someone could breach it or not. For instance I have a safe buried in my closet with random valuables in it....I know nobody is going to be able to dig through my boxes and find it without me knowing, but that doesn't mean I'm just going to leave it unlocked. His arrogance was his downfall, and that's like....rule # 1 in any military strategy: don't get cocky. He did, and look what happened.

And I never said a great elf warrior. It could have been a short man in leather, a dwarf rogue, a slim elf spy, and other carriers who I think could have successfully snuck through the same areas Frodo did, maybe even a bit more successfully.  My point being I wouldn't have thought "a hobbit is too insignificant to worry about" but "I don't have it so there's a chance anything could happen." If you don't like the physical guard idea, then I think it makes just as much sense without being overly paranoid to have some sort of gate. Look at the Black Gate....forget the trolls/orcs on top, nobody is getting through that gate without some serious effort amongst a large group of individuals.

And again I think he was too obvious in his search for the ring. He should have played opossum until the day his armies left, which should also have been the same day Saruman attacked. Yeah I'm sure Gandalf and Elrond and Galdriel and all of them would have known something was brewing, but they wouldn't know it was Sauron himself looking for the ring until it was too little, too late.

Billin,

You are forgetting the rules. I don't think there was 10,000 trolls in ME.

The reason why Sauron lost was because he didn't follow the rules of the Art of War.

If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. - Sun Tzu

But back with the topic. I agreed with some of the stuff said. I would've have some kind of security an Mt. Doom. I wouldn't have attack Minith Tirith so soon. As I said in the opening post, the army of Dol Guldur would attack Rohan. This however is more of a diversion. If it was successful fine, but it's main goal is to draw Gondor's army to aid Rohan. Once their army marched to the aid of Rohan, then I'll attack Gondor while its army is weaker. Also I would use the Corsairs to attack Dol Amroth instead. This is to either stop reinforcements going to the aid of Minith Tirith or to draw  Gondor's army to that city, decreasing Minith Tirith's defense force.

An interesting idea...

It is easy to say with hindsight, having seen what went wrong for Sauron, what you would do to counter ways in which his plan failed - namely, place a guard on Mount Doom. Without the benefit of that hindsight, however, you must view the world through Sauron's eyes. He did not conceive his enemies would try to destroy the ring once they had it. Who in their right mind would destroy the greatest weapon they had in their arsenal? The ring even had part of his own spirit in there that would fight such destruction should anyone attempt it. Even should he have considered that option, we are assuming Mount Doom was the only place it could be destroyed. I cannot remember whether it was Gandalf or some other on the White Council who said it could only be destroyed in the fire that created it. How did they know that? It is a fair assumption that the ring could be destroyed in Mount Doom, but why not any other volcano. Maybe Sauron knew more than the others about this, and knew of other ways in which the ring could be un-made/destroyed. If so, he would need to guard more than just Mount Doom. And if Mount Doom was the only place it could be destroyed, surely it would need to be defended from the air because who in their right mind would walk all the way across Mordor when they had Eagles as allies?

So, like Sauron, I would probably either assume the ring was not going to be destroyed, or maybe wary of several places that it could be unmade if that was the intention of the enemy.

The West is in decline. The North has already fallen to the Witch king's armies years before. The elves are leaving Middle Earth. Your own armies of orcs are growing. In theory you wait for the West to decline so much that your armies can just roll over them. You could use subterfuge and lies to corrupt the Gondorian leaders as you had done centuries before with their kin the Numenorians. The only threat out there is your own ring. In the hands of a Baggins - a mere halfling - that is no great threat. At worse the ring remains hidden for several centuries and creates another Gollum. The danger is though, there are people in the West who could probably dominate the ring sufficiently to use its powers against you. The Istari, Galadrial, Elrond, Denethor, Boromir, Tharanduril, a Balrog, a Black Numenorian,??? Okay, they would become corrupted and evil in doing so, but that doesn't do you any good if they kill you in the process. Eventually, someone is going to find the ring and be able to use it. To prevent that you must stop them by finding it first. My first move then would be to send out my Nazgul to find the ring. They are the only ones who can actually sense its presence, and the only ones who I can fully trust not to take it for their own once they find it. Sauron made the right move here.

Okay, I study my enemies. The West is in decline but Gondor and Rohan still have significant armies. The Elves are slowly departing Middle Earth, but still have powerful warriors and wizards available. Annoyingly, their leaders seem to have the ability to remain hidden. That is possibly down to the rings that Celebrimbor crafted. What other powers do they give their wielders? You do not know. All the more reason to find your own ring so you can imprison the wielders of the Elven rings.

There are then the Istari. Your spies inform you there are five of them. Five powerful wizards, each capable of wielding your ring and defeating you. Five against one. Not good odds unless you can divide and conquer them. Frustratingly, like the elves, for the most part they tend to remain hidden. Gandalf seems to have disappeared off the face the earth. Radaghast is up to no good spying on your forces at Dol Guldur. Alatar and Pallando have disappeared into the East or the South. Saruman has taken residence in Orthanc, however, and certainly has delusions of grandeur. He is foolishly using one of the Palantir stones to spy on you. You contest his will and "master" him. You learn he is looking for the ring, and from what your own spies have discovered, is looking in roughly the right place. If Saruman find the ring, he will probably be able to master you. He is the chief threat and must be destroyed. You use subterfuge and lies to achieve his downfall. You let him believe you are working together and will share the power once you are victorious. You must use him to cripple himself against your other enemies, so when the time comes you can defeat him too. The other Istari must be dealt with in a similar fashion if they reveal themselves. Maybe you can even get them fighting among themselves?

Okay, the enemy armies. You painfully remember an alliance of Elves and Numenorians who defeated you last time. You suspect both are now weaker than then, but you cannot be sure. Every spy you send into Lorien and northern Mirkwood disappears. You know there is an elven stronghold at the Grey Havens that used to be the home of Gil Galad. You suspect that Cirdan rules there. You do not fear Cirdan too much. He has tended to remain hidden through history, sheltering women and children. He is evasive though. If you get near him he will slip out to sea where Ulmo will protect him. The sea is a bad place. If things go to plan, maybe once it is all over you can get your Black Numenorian allies at Umbar to trap him in his port while your orcs attack the Havens from land. Elrond is a problem. You cannot find him. The remainder of the Elder in Middle Earth are probably with him. You do not know how many? Dozens? Hundreds? Thousands?

Then there are the Dwarves. Although they tend to remain hidden underground, you cannot be certain they will not send an army to help your enemies. You remember how they resisted Glaurung and more recently they helped defeat Smaug. That was a blow... you hoped to use Smaug. You must lay siege to their cities with an army large enough to defeat them if they decide to come out and fight. Your spies inform you they have cities in the Iron Hills, the Lonely Mountain and the Blue Mountains. You must lay siege to both the Iron Hills and the Lonely Mountain. This army must also defeat Dale and Lake Town. Your Easterling allies would be best placed to do this. You cannot send everyone though with those Istari meddling behind the scenes. There is Dorwinion too. They have been trading with the elves and will probably fight against you. If only you had more time in which to use your subterfuge against them. Time is running out though. The ring could be found any day and your massive orcish armies need feeding. Unless you cull some of them soon in battle they will run out of food and fight each other. You curse Melkor for creating such weak willed fools.

So, an army of Easterlings to lay siege to the Dwarves, Dorwinion, Dale and Lake Town. You must stop the Elves from Lorien and Mirkwood joining the alliance. That will take all you have in Dol Guldur. Unless you want an Elven army attacking your back, you will need to split this force and attack both Lorien and Mirkwood. Mirkwood is particularly important, unless you want them attacking the flanks of your army laying siege to the Dwarves. You will also make use of your orcs in the northern Misty Mountains to deal with Mirkwood. Fangorn too, seems a threat. Your spies never return from there, either. Could that be Elrond's Hide out?

Gondor is your biggest threat. Their forefathers defeated you before. Minas Tirith will take a huge army to defeat, particularly if reinforced from Southern Gondor. Your Corsair allies can defeat individual citeis, but probably not the whole of Southern Gondor. The threat of an attack might keep the Gondorians holed up in their cities, however, while your army from the South and from Minas Morgal lays siege to Minas Tirith. With more time you could maybe convince Denethor to open the gates, but so far he has proved remarkably resilient to your persuasion. Further, his son Boromir was seen heading north towards the ring. If he is as resilient as his father, and his victory at Osgiliath shows he could be, he might master the ring if he gets it. He might not only then unite Gondor and Rohan, but your Corsair allies might also decide to change sides. You must move soon. You cannot afford to have 10,000 Rohirrim cavalry charge into your flanks while you lay siege to Minas Tirith. You must defeat them before your army crosses the Anduin. You instruct Saruman to attack the Rohirrim with his orcs and Hillmen allies. It doesn't matter if he wins or not, provided both forces are sufficiently weakened to no longer pose a threat. If Saruman is victorious, you will have him attack Elrond, or whoever is lurking in Fangorn.

Well the pieces are almost in place. To make sure, however, you send two of your nazgul to Dunharrow. The old ghost king failed to side with the Gondorians before, maybe he will side with you now? If so, you will have his army sack the Southern Gondorian cities, leaving the Corsairs to help your main army at Minas Tirith.

My post was a bit rambling, but what I was trying to say was...

1. Sauron was corrupting Saruman through the palantir in a battle of wills. He was winning that battle.

2. If Saruman got the ring, he would be powerful enough to use it, although it would eventually corrupt him to its own will.

3. In the meantime, the additional power that the ring bestowed upon Saruman would probably be sufficient to enable Saruman to win that battle of wills. Instead of Sauron trapping and beguiling Saruman, Saruman could probably have done that to Sauron.

I realise this argument is somewhat subjective and relies upon Saruman having sufficient power to use the ring. It may be that even in the short term, the ring would refuse to work for Saruman against its true owner in that battle of wills - in effect Saruman may have found himself pitting his will against both Sauron and the ring.

With regard to the notion that the ring could only be destroyed in Mount Doom, I still stick to my original argument. I also have a lot of respect for the knowledge and wisdom of Elrond, but what does he actually know of the ring? He did lead the survivors of the Gwaith-i-Mirdain to Rivendell after the fall of Eregion, and would have learned a lot about the rings from them. The elven rings, however, were built in normal forges. Even Celebrimbor was unaware of the One Ring until Sauron put it on. I am sure Sauron did not provide anyone with details of how it was made or how it could be destroyed. Elrond's prediction that it could only be destroyed in the fire that created it is pure speculation. He does not know that sure. The only person who can possibly know that is Sauron. In my opinion, what Elrond should have said was the only place they know it can be destroyed is Mount Doom where it was created. At the end of the day what is so special about Mount Doom that other volcanoes do not have? Agreed, a big gate and a guard on the entrance would have been sensible, but Sauron could probably think of a dozen ways or places in which the ring could be destroyed.

In a letter Tolkien also noted that Sauron believed that no one could intentionally harm the One, and that even he [Sorehead himself] could not bring himself to harm it.

That doesn't fit all that well with Gandalf's statement in the books that Sauron at first believed the One had been destroyed. Maybe Gandalf is wrong and Tolkien is right, or Sauron came to believe that no one could intentionally harm the One. Anyway...

'... There was another weakness: if the One ring was actually unmade, annihilated, then its power would be dissolved... But that he never contemplated or feared. The Ring was unbreakable by any smithcraft less than his own. It was indissoluble in any fire, save the undying subterranean fire where it was made - and that was unapproachable in Mordor. [I break the text here for emphasis]

Also so great was the Ring's power of lust, that anyone who used it became mastered by it; it was beyond the strength of any will (even his own) to injure it, cast it away, or neglect it. So he thought. (...)'

JRRT, Letters

If Tolkien is correct, one could at least add this to the reasons for Sauron not guarding Mount Doom better. The case of Isildur seems to support this, anyway.

How is 10,000 trolls unrealistic? Mordor is a huge mass of space that he could have easily bread 100,000 trolls, so 10,000 trolls is actually very realistic.

"Mordor doesn't have the resources to feed an army of 10,000 trolls let alone on the march. Therefore it's unrealistic."  If Mordor has resorses to feed over 100,00 orcs and other thing, I think it has so much to feed 10,000 trolls.

Srry. Strike one Nazgul!

Oh, maybe they could just eat their own limbs. IDk

His biggest failure wasn't arrogance,it was fear.  He feared that Aragorn (who revealed himself to Sauron via Isengard's Palantir), who he knew had the power, would claim and wield the ring.   So when Aragorn came to his gates with a relatively small army the only logical explanation (to Sauron) was that Aragorn was using the ring. Even with the ring Sauron saw how weak the army was and saw hope in squashing it before Aragorn got a decent mastery of the ring.

Exactly - Sauron was focused on Aragorn. He feared that Aragon, Isildur's heir will be able to repossess the throne of Gondor. I think this fear, along with his hate for Men (especially Dunedain, especially from the royal kin) clouded his mind and he decide to strike against them first.  I just came upon a nice quote on that - this is from The Unfinished Tales and it describes Gandalf's point of view and his strategy against Sauron.

Unfinished Tales, Notes of the text "The Quest of Erebor"

Then everything grew dark. And yet that was not his original plan; and it was in the end a mistake. Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lórien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first, and not spent more than half of it in the assault on Gondor.

I think also Sauron thought that Men are too proud to pass over the chance of attacking , especially knowing that he is desperately searching for the Ring. I think he counted on their pride a lot.

Hm, personally there's not a doubt in my mind that one of Sauron's biggest mistakes was, indeed, arrogance. I agree fear played a role as well, in fact the two probably played off each other. For instance I still think it ridiculous to not have some sort of sentry to watch the only entrance into Mt. Doom while the ring is missing. If this is not considered arrogance, then it is stupidity, something I definitely do not think Sauron is. He certainly wouldn't leave it unguarded out of fear.

I'm not so sure Sauron was that focused on Aragorn tbh. At least not for awhile. Most of his plans had already been made even before Aragorn revealed himself...heck, probably even before Aragorn became Aragorn. On top of this, if the Nine could sense when the ring was near, then I don't see why Sauron wouldn't have the same capability, at least within an up close vicinity to Mordor, considering he was basically a powerful force of energy inside Mordor who used the palantir to watch his enemies. Not to mention Aragorn walked right up to the gate and spoke to an emissary before Sauron even released his forces, offering an opportunity to focus and try and sense the ring. And lastly Sauron probably still believed it was in the possession of a hobbit! So when Aragorn approached, I find it unlikely he assumed he had the ring, but rather, as Indis pointed out, was counting on their pride and/or stupidity. Perhaps he thought this was the last of men, rallying what they had in hopes of defeating Mordor.

Again in Sauron's defense, his plans probably would have worked if it weren't for an immortal army being summoned from the dead to fight against him...something he probably didn't expect. Whether he forgot about them, didn't know that was even possible, didn't think it would happen, or thought it wouldn't be a big deal I can't say. I could be mistaken but I vaguely remember reading somewhere Sauron actually did send someone to Dunarrow but they never returned. Could be wrong about that but it sounds familiar. But even if everything else happened as it did, take away the Army of the Dead and he probably still would've won.

But overall it could be argued his military "blunders" were more coincidence and the good guys being in the right place at the right time.

Yes, leaving the entry to Mount Doom open was foolish, but mind of Sauron didn't work that way - he didn't expect that anyone who has the One Ring would try to destroy it. And I agree with Gwindor here - it seemed that all the ways to Mount Doom were well guarded (at least from Sauron's perspective). Frodo and Sam got caught by orcs. They fled but it wasn't the strategy that let them go - the orcs, and their truculent nature failed. And of course Frodo and Sam had a lot of luck on their way - all strange things that happened (even Gollum's attacks) led to destruction of the Ring.

I think that up until Sauron moved his 60,000+ orcs to the black gate, he had a very good chance of winning. He had an army that could potentially defeat the armies of all his enemies put together for a very long time, but I think he made a few key mistakes.

The first, he was unable to acknowledge his weaknesses. Actually, that's because he doesn't have any. Even when he surrendered all his armies he still corrupted Numenor from within. Furthermore, he was able to survive the wrath of Eru and resurface, powerful as ever. However, saying he has no weaknesses is false. The Valar could still come back and destroy him, and there is virtually nothing he could do to stop that. Luckily for him, that's extremely unlikely. He could also be imprisoned by the elves, Galadriel or Elrond certainly wouldn't fall for that "I can make you immortal" scam. For this to happen, his entire army would have to be destroyed and his fortress besieged. His fortress is virtually indestructible against common siege equipment, so the only way this is at all possible is if his more powerful foes have the ring. Even in this case, he still gets to watch them slowly corrupt as the ring overcomes them. Or, the ring could be destroyed. Elrond tried to get Isildur to destroy it 3,000 years ago, so clearly there is a conceivable possibility that they might attempt it again. Even if they don't succeed, they may get all the way to mount doom with the ring, in which case some guards to steal it from them would be most helpful. Besides, what's ~100 orcs to a spirit with over 100,000?

His second mistake was to spread himself too thin. I said earlier he could potentially defeat all his enemies put together, but not if they had their fortresses. The more northern kingdoms were not disposed to send armies to Gondor, especially with the threat of Dol Guldor nearby, Erador and the lonely mountain as well as Mirkwood and Lorien would have maybe sent armies to Gondor, but seemed more concerned with their own borders. This was perhaps caused by Sauron sending a large force of evil men to join with the garisson at Dol Guldor and hopefully burn the whole north to the ground, but he didn't send enough to conquer a single kingdom, much less four. However, sending these armies weakened his assault on Gondor which was absolutely critical to his success.

Think about it this way. If Mirkwood, Lorien, Erador or the lonely mountain sent troops to Gondor then Dol Guldor burns them to the ground. They could unite and march on Dol Guldor, in which case they are delayed and by the time they can get to Gondor, it's already gone. Instead, Sauron sent a large force of evil men (a force that could have been very helpful at Pelennor) to a mission that was extremely difficult and, more importantly, somewhat irrelevant.

Pelennor... Sauron should have won. Too much of his force was lumped together, had he broken it up into two smaller units, one with siege equipment capable of outreaching Gondors, and enough soldiers  that even if Gondor sortied with all its men they would still be outnumbered three to one, and the rest of the soldiers hidden as reserves. That way, Gondor on its own would be unable to survive, being burned by the catapults and unable to strike back because it was badly outnumbered. However, if reinforcements did show up, from the northern kingdoms or Rohan perhaps, they would then find themselves surrounded by the reserves. However, Sauron wanted a quick and decisive victory and didn't want to risk a strategy that would endanger his siege equipment and half his army, though what he did endangered his entire army in my opinion. 

Of course, if he just let Aragorn starve outside the gates then Frodo would never make it to mount doom anyway...

Just re-read some portions of LotR and tH, and I have yet to find any figures with which to estimate the military power of the elves. If anyone has some numbers, please share them.

In any case, it seems like the free peoples have the military power to defeat Sauron in a fair fight, so when Elrond keeps saying "we can't oppose him with military strength" I think he is wrong.

I didn't mean that the different realms could each stand up to Mordor, Mordor was a superpower and they weren't. However, all of them allied together could, in my opinion, annihilate Mordor's forces in open battle.

There were 35,000 dwarves, nearly 30,000 men from Gondor, 12,000 or more cavalry from Rohan, probably a few thousand humans from dale and laketown, and probably over 10,000 elves. Don't forget the dead soldiers either, they could probably kill a lot of orcs as well. If they had a fortress to help them, the allied forces could probably defeat Mordors forces. In open battle, I think they could have a good chance, especially since Sauron was far too arrogant and could be drawn into a trap, perhaps ending up surrounded, fighting dead soldiers, or even being pitted against the mighty Huorns from Fangorn.

I don't think they would have had trouble uniting under Aragorn. The only people I can imagine wouldn't unite to fight for him are the dwarves. Without them, victory would be difficult. However, with Frodo as a diplomat, perhaps a tedious alliance could be built on the grounds that Glorfindel would fight another Balrog after they destroyed Sauron's armies. The Greeks united to fight the Persians despite near constant war until that point, common enemies cause alliances, that's my opinion.